Impact of Food Crisis, Today and the Future…. Globalization or Protectionism?

I have been thinking about the great benefits us humans have been experiencing with globalization and trade relationships between countries. It is amazing to see how globalization is essentially changing our perception of the world and opening us to the broader scope that we were not previewed to before. It is great to see how different countries are interdependent and supporting each others economy. Take for instance the economies in BRIC (Brazil, India, Russia and China) nations. These economies have seen significant uplift in the recent past, thanks to developed countries such as US, Canada and EU. Much needed skills in developed nations can be found in these and other developing nations. A mutually beneficial relationship has raised the economic and living standards of many countries.

While on one hand one may think these relationships will last for ever, one recently emerging crisis in the world could throw a wrench in this seemingly amicable relationship between these countries. Believe it or not, with the current food crisis, some countries may actually resort to protectionism again. A practice where by countries establish certain economic policies where by they create trade barriers between countries, be it in the form of tariffs, stopping export of their absolute advantage goods or by other means.

Take for example Indonesia a once major exporter of wheat and rice. With food crisis hitting an all time high in recent past they have stopped or limited the export of these items to other countries. Essentially advancing towards practicing protectionism that once was followed only when kings ruled our world. I wonder if this practice will creep into other countries too?

This begs the question, what about globalization where countries share resources that were mutually beneficial? Seems like change is around the corner. With the projected increase in food demand for the ever growing world’s population (estimated to hit 8 billion by 2030) and diminishing arable land, the situation is far from being fixed or even close to a potential solution.

Here are my thoughts. I think the situation with food crisis is only going to worsen. With developing and developed countries increasingly protecting their agricultural outputs for their own citizens, and rightfully so, I think that there is a potential for major unrest in countries like Africa that heavily depend on foreign aid for their survival. Oxfam very recently appealed to the world to bring awareness to the increasing crisis in Africa. Research has also shown that when ever there is less arable land or lack of food (due to even lack of rain) it resulted in civil unrest.

While developed and possibly some developing nations are well equipped to handle such crisis (for a certain duration), it is the underdeveloped that are going to face the most difficulty. In a deeply destabilized world the country that is the least favorite is likely to have the most sufferers.

It is probably time to evaluate and test alternative resources and advanced technologies that will help in a higher crop yield, in probably most unstable environment drawn by global warming. Under some very recent and reasonable estimates the preservation of human life would require such intense innovation and even tougher actions around the world. These attempts are probably our best bet to averting a potential human catastrophe, unfortunately this time triggered by lack of food, which many residents of the world have not experienced and may not be in a position to cope.